RMLS Lockbox Activity

Lockbox Activity Down Over Labor Day Weekend
House Hunters Take Break Over Holiday
It appears some house hunters took a break to get in that last camping trip or to prepare their kids for school. In Washington, the number of times RMLS™ subscribers opened Supra lockboxes was down 8% when comparing the week of August 24-30 to the week of August 31-September 6. In Oregon activity was also down 5.5%.

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2007 Housing Slump Alters Moving Trends
The housing slump and mortgage crisis combined to reshape population flows in 2007, according to demographic estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau in early 2008. “The hot housing market cooled off, and it’s stopping people from moving,” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution that analyzed the Census estimates.
In particular, the data revealed that:
Nevada’s growth rate fell to 2.9% in 2007 from 3.5% the previous year. Florida’s growth also hit a low of just above 1%, down from its high of 2.3% in 2005. Arizona, No. 2 in growth, slipped to 2.8% from 3.6%.
Washington this year became the 13th largest state, bumping Massachusetts to No. 14.
Midwestern industrial states, including Michigan and Ohio, continue their population decline. Michigan lost 30,000 people in one year, leaving a total population of 10.07 million (8th largest state), and Ohio grew by only 3,404 people for a total population of 11.47 million [7th largest state).
Reflecting a slowdown in the lure of the Washington, D.C. metro area, Virginia gained a net 3,000 people from other states, down from 10,000 in 2006 and a high of 41,000 in 2003. “Maryland had an increase in out-migration,” Frey says. “In-migration into the greater D.C. area seems to be slowing down.”
Louisiana, still grappling with the effects of 2005’s Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, gained almost 50,000 residents between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2007, although the state still has 200,000 fewer residents than it did before the storms. New Orleans’ population is about two-thirds of its pre-storm level.
The housing slump also could affect the political landscape. If population declines continue, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania will each lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives through reapportionment after completion of the 2010 Census.

Secrets to Staging the Outside to Get Them InsideThursday, January 03, 2008 - By David Sobel as published in National Realty News
You’ve had that experience with a client where you drive up to a house and they don’t even want to go inside. It’s an immediate “un-appeal.” You may know the inside of the house shows much better, but you just can’t convince them to spend the time to even go inside. In today’s market where lots of choices in housing are available to the buyer, why should they?
Let's talk about some easy, inexpensive fixes that will help create that outside appeal and get you one giant step further to a sale.
Paint or stain the front and garage doors, especially if they show any weathering. These are the first visuals where a potential buyer focuses. If garage doors are metal and dented, they may need to be replaced.
Any old, basically abandoned sheds or small structures must be removed and thearea should be graded and the grass replaced.
Change any dated outside light fixture(s).
Fix that driveway. If it is blacktop, make sure cracks and crumbling areas are dug out and filled and then the whole driveway sealed. If it is cement, have large cracks filled and repaired professionally. The buyer must at least feel they can drive the moving truck in confidently!
Make sure landscaping bricks are in their proper placement. Mowing, weed-whipping sometimes moves them and this is something the homeowner rarely notices, but makes the property look unsightly.
Fill in bare dirt under large shade trees. Plant shade-tolerant plants in defined planters or groundcover. Landscape properly for that area.
All landscaping beds should be cleaned out and updated for the time of year it is in your region. Place new bedding material down.
Have trees and bushes pruned and trimmed. If a bush or tree is looking old or about to expire, remove it and replace it with a similar size and type if you can. If there is a tree limb(s) over the roof, have them removed.
If the house needs painting and a full paint job is not in the cards; have it touched up professionally in the worst, most visible spots. Paint shutters and fix them if they are hanging crooked. At least this may help get your client in the front door, even if they negotiate a full paint job into the sale later.
If the house is sided, have it power-washed and have gutters and windows cleaned! Window cleaning inside and out makes the house feel updated and fresh, rather than old and dingy.
Make sure grass is in good shape, weeds are removed, trimming done regularly. So many sellers fall down on this job the minute the house is listed, and this is critical to selling a house quickly, especially one where the owners have already moved out. In snowy climates, removal must be done regularly too. If owners have moved out, make sure you have an HWA Home Warranty to re-assure buyers.
Keep garbage and recycle containers inside the garage, along with all toys and equipment. Make sure the garage is neat and organized. Painted walls and floors also go a long way in this area and are inexpensive to do.
Decks should be washed and repainted or re-sealed; with plantings around them cleaned, weed-free and looking good. Patio furniture should be in excellent condition. Even though it is in the backyard, this is the area where the family can envision enjoying the warm days and the new yard.
If the roof has missing shingles and they can be replaced inexpensively, suggest this be done as it may save negotiation over a completely new roof. Roof repair needs and costs should be minor or the homeowner might as well replace the entire roof.
If the homeowner wants to do a bit more, suggest solar lights lining the driveway or installing a more attractive front door with lead glass inserts and replacing plain doorknobs with something more custom.
If you have an evening showing, make sure lights are on outside and inside the house. This is warm and inviting.
If it’s a holiday season, by all means decorate the home! Just like sugar cookies or vanilla scent on the inside of the house, this really says “it’s a home” and I can see myself enjoying life here! In the least, always have some greenery or flowers for the season on the front step or porch; even a birdbath with a little garden around it says home.
Remember, most homebuyers cannot visualize even these simple changes and clean ups in a house and the ones who can will be looking for a reduced price. So to sell the house at top dollar and quickly by making it “appeal” to the many who will be seeing it rather than the few who are looking for a “fixer upper.” These people know what they want, go after it and need less assistance.
Finally, have neighbors or friends look at the finished results to see if you or the home owner has missed anything key that would be quick and easy to do.

www.brokeragentnews.com
1. Selection, selection, selection. There are thousands of resale homes on the market in Your County. Regardless of the price range a buyer desires, there are plenty of houses from which to choose. There is a great selection of attached homes, condos, and townhouses. You can find large lots, small lots, and a lot that will accommodate your boat or RV. There are lots of options in this market.
2. No Bidding Wars. In 2005 we had one client that made an offer on ten homes. They lost the first nine to the ’feeding frenzy’ that existed. Other buyers bid the properties up substantially from the original listing price. There were escalation clauses where buyers authorized their agents to outbid other offers by thousands of dollars. There is no competitive bidding
in this buyer’s market.
3. You can make an offer. A few years ago when you made an offer, the only question was how high above the list price could the buyer reach in hopes of being the best offer on the table. Today the sell price list vs. price ration is about 96%. A seller will not be insulted if you ’make them an offer they can’t refuse’.
4. Patience is tolerated. In the hot seller’s market that existed everything was rushed. Find a house before other buyers did. Hurry up and make the offer. Today a buyer can take their time. Look at several homes and think about your decision for a few hours.
5. Due diligence is welcomed. In this market a buyer is encouraged to obtain a home inspection, termite inspection, and appraisal. In 2005 many buyers waived these contingencies in order gain an advantage with multiple offers.
6. There are plenty of specs. In the not too distant past buyer had to ’play games’ if they wanted a new home. There were lotteries and waiting lists in order to obtain new construction. Some buyers slept in their cars in order to get to the head of the lines. R.L. Brown estimates that builders have thousands of specs ready for immediate occupancy.
7. Repair requests are welcomed. After a buyer completes a home inspection, they are allowed to submit a repair request to the seller. In the past a seller might insist the home was sold ’as is’. Many times, there were back-up buyers waiting for a primary buyer to upset the seller whose home was increasing in value almost daily.
8. Few, if any investors. It is estimated that one third of all sales in 2005 were to investors. These non-owner occupied buyer caused the market to inflate and affordability to decline. Mortgage fraud became commonplace. It’s a great time to buy without having to compete with hundreds of prospective landlords.
9. Location, location, location. Today’s buyers can find homes closer to work. In the past buyers flocked to outlying areas in order to find affordable homes. In this market, reasonably priced homes are within biking or walking distance to schools, rapid transit lines, and relatives.
10. Real Financing is available. The ’wink, wink’ zero down, no doc, adjustable, sub-prime loans are gone. Fixed rates are back. FHA financing, first time homeowner bond programs, special loans for teachers, and police officers are back in business.
It’s a great time to buy real estate!

NAR economist underlines real estate's silver lining
www.inman.com

In all the years I've been writing this column, I have never received such an outpouring of response as I did from the two November articles on how media coverage of negative housing news is hurting our industry.
In spite of gloom and doom of recent news reports on the state of the nation's housing, there is plenty of good news, the most recent of which comes from the National Association of Realtors.
Laurence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, had plenty of positive news for Realtors at last month's conference. Yun attributed much of today's subprime mortgage problem to greed. Wall Street wanted the 10-12 percent return that subprime mortgages yielded as opposed to the smaller returns from more traditional mortgage products. His take on the Wall Street types: "They gambled. They lost."
Yun's outlook for 2008 sees a shift from greedy speculators to serious homeowners. 2008 will be a year of opportunity where there will be serious, healthy business. Furthermore, Yun predicted that the market returns to normal by 2009.
According to Yun, one of the biggest mistakes that reporters make is talking about national trends. Nationally, 2007 was the fifth best year ever on record. Home prices declined about 1.5 percent after a 50 percent run up in prices.
The challenge is that national numbers are pretty much irrelevant. Yun argues that talking about national averages is about as effective as having a national weather forecast. Like the weather, all real estate markets are local. In fact, you may have a buyer's market and a seller's market operating within a single market area based exclusively upon price point. Here are the other key pieces of positive news from Yun's economic report:
1. New housing starts: Even though these are dropping, there was too much building in recent years. The market is simply adjusting to normal supply-and-demand pressures. The inventory is "being controlled which makes stabilization occur more quickly."
2. Foreclosures: According to Yun, the 41 percent increase in foreclosures has resulted primarily from investor-heavy real estate purchases in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. The majority of these individuals are flippers whose investments did not payoff. More importantly, the number of foreclosures in Utah, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Carolina is actually declining.
3. Under-priced markets and superstar cities: Although the coastal markets are still overpriced, Middle America is under priced. Nevertheless, Yun cites a new trend termed, "superstar" cities. These cities will command premium prices, regardless of what the market does. There is so much wealth concentrated in these areas, that measurements are simply not predictive. In addition to London, Paris, Tokyo and New York, Yun also identified San Francisco, Miami and Seattle as potential new superstar cities.
4. The recovery has started: Other than the three states hit heavily by job losses in the automotive industry (Indiana, Michigan and Ohio), the states that first experienced a downturn in the Northeast, are now in recovery. Specifically, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island were the first to feel the slump and are now well into a recovery. Furthermore, there appears to be a pent-up demand for first-time buyer properties due to a large number of Gen Ys (born 1977 to 1994) that are now buying their first homes. Falling interest rates will motivate many of these buyers to step into the market now.
5. New jobs and corporate profits are still strong: Corporate profits are still strong with companies as diverse as Microsoft and Jack Daniels reporting close to record profits. Furthermore, the economy has generated 4 million net new jobs and wages are rising.
6. A weak dollar may harbinger more foreign investment in U.S. real estateAlthough the decline of the U.S. dollar will end up costing us more when we go overseas or purchase imports, it has resulted in more manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S. It also may mean more foreign investment in U.S. properties as well. Just a few years ago, the Canadian dollar was only worth 70 cents in U.S. currency. Today, the Canadian dollar has been hovering at about $1.05 to $1.10 U.S. What this means is that we can expect more Canadians and Europeans to be purchasing U.S. property, because our prices are approximately 50 percent cheaper than they were just three years ago.
7. Real estate: Still the best shelter: For those agents who represent reluctant first-time buyers, Yun points to some interesting research from the Federal Reserve. Between 1995 and 2004, the average renter accumulated $4,000 in wealth. In contrast, the average homeowner accumulated $184,400. Furthermore, the typical homeowner holds their property for six years. Within this period of time, NAR's research shows that approximately 97 percent of the homeowners will have a positive equity position after that period of time.
Bottom line: 2008 represents the best window that buyers will have to find excellent deals with excellent financing. Get the word out there. If they wait, prices and interest rates will be higher and the reluctant buyer may be forced out of the market.

141 homes sell for a total of $65 million at real estate auction

Housing - With 96 percent of the houses going for below the reserve price, "we lost money," says the builder
Monday, December 17, 2007
Roger Pollock said he wanted to sell a lot of homes at his two-day auction this weekend -- and he did just that.
Pollock said he sold 141 homes for a total of $65 million at the Oregon Convention Center in what was one of the largest real estate sell-offs in Oregon history.
Pollock's Buena Vista Custom Homes had advertised more than 240 homes to sell at auction. By comparison, Real Estate Disposition Corp., the Irvine, Calif. auctioneer, had never done a home builder's auction larger than 60 homes.
Pollock turned to the auction when the housing market slowed this fall and his sales turned to a trickle. Rather than pay interest on his construction loans for a year or more until the homes sold, Pollock opted for the auction.
Westside homes in Beaverton and Hillsboro sold best, Pollock said. None of the 29 Bend homes sold, and homes that are now rented didn't sell well, either. Pollock said the sales also will generate about $250,000 for charity.
Although the homes looked especially attractive with super-low starting bids, some brokers were concerned that the homes had a higher, undisclosed "reserve price" that was the lowest Pollock was obligated to accept. But Pollock said about 96 percent of the homes he sold went for below the reserve price. The reserve price, he said, was equal to his costs.
"We didn't make any money on these homes," Pollock said. "We lost money."
"There's been this perception that this wasn't aboveboard," said Pollock, noting that each home has a one-year warranty, standard for Buena Vista's homes. "But I think the results speak for themselves. I did what I said I would do."
About 1,900 people turned out for the auction.
-- Ryan Frank